Lessons of the Week
As our institutional leaders run out the clock well past their sell-by date, awaiting their retirement, innovation is accelerating without them. The generational dynamic of the 4th Turning, AI productivity, and seamless global interconnects allow anyone, anywhere, to harness the Forces of Creative Destruction.
What I learned this week….
Laser-based satellite interconnects are far faster transports than networks of underwater fiber optics. And speed will matter for LLM interconnects.
The United States could have been the world leader in 5G technology instead of China if we had just given Erdal Arıkan a green card when he needed one. (Alec Stapp)
As real-time interconnects deliver high-speed data and AI productivity anywhere in the world (Starlink and 5g), why does talent need to migrate?
Crop yield and nutrition developments have been negatively correlated for 50+ years. Who has the crop modeling technology to create a positive correlation? It does require a training dataset similar to road data from 5M Teslas.
He who has the best market position to grow the training data set in crops, food science, or human nutrition has a competitive advantage (assuming all AI is essentially equal)
To eliminate the $1.9 T of healthcare costs from poor nutrition, agriculture and CPGs need to develop the same sort of datasets, analytical tools and investment discipline as pharmaceutical companies.
While nutrition comes from soil health, the bulk of experts believe there are too many exogenous variables to control the variance needed to achieve better nutrition in food. (See Chuck Yaeger)
Carbon programs in grasslands are more turn-key than row crops, with less outcome variability. Six Sigma and Poka-yoke will turn soil microbes/health from a fad to innovation.
Is the next breakthrough in nutrition density better crop genetics or coordination of genetics, soil, and human systems to maximize bio-availability? The latter.
A business's value is more a function of the number of customers it serves. It becomes exponential when competitors are too stuck to exit old paradigms.
The great innovations harness the forces of Creative Destruction, changing strongly held beliefs—the earth is flat, the sound barrier cannot be broken, etc. but satisfying latent consumer needs.
A team with more shots on goal beats a team with a bold vision.
Once the data is in and outliers are removed, expect Dairy to be net carbon-positive.
I can’t determine whether nutrition density at scale comes best from crop genetics, soil, or fortification.
How do you model non-linear technoeconomics?
Knowledge is the means of production.
If women reduce obesity (Ozempic) and men keep their cell phones clear of their front pockets, fertility will increase. (Tim Ferris)
"The problems of the world cannot possibly be solved by skeptics or cynics whose horizons are limited by the obvious realities. We need men who can dream of things that never were."
John F. Kennedy
Some Conclusions
Pursuit of Happiness
I have not watched the news for more than a year because it is irrelevant. The great institutions that have brought us to this point are waiting out their time. They are well past their “Sell By” date and nearing retirement.
The front row of what is next is elsewhere.
When I was in the advanced studies group in Boeing Phantom Works in the late 90s, we saw the confluence of technology, political systems, and capital markets at the end of their useful architectures. The frameworks of institutional collaboration bringing us to this moment and transitioning us through the breathtaking innovation of the last 100 years are the product of post-World War II leadership - the work of entrepreneurs everywhere, but notably complimented in the “Wise Men” that led our institutions.
In 1997 we knew that by 2020, we would flounder in the “Fourth Turning” foretold by Strauss and Howe in their book on history’s cycles. Every 80 years or so, we go through a rebirth. Transitioning to a better world, often through some form of disruption, war, or social unrest. There is really nothing shocking about the rise of China’s military, the acceleration of AI, or the weakness of US political leadership.
However, the one thing that will never change is entrepreneurs' ability to guide us through these cycles. In these periods of institutional malaise, the entrepreneur is free to harness the Forces of Creative Destruction to solve society's core wants and needs. As Hayek noted, entrepreneurs are uniquely skilled at the use of knowledge in society. Thomas Jefferson rewrote “Life, Liberty, and Property” to “Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness” because he anticipated that knowledge would matter more as a means of production than factories. And that government, rent seekers, and monopolists could never control knowledge as the means of production.
We are starting to see innovation accelerate the means of knowledge. For $20 a month, anyone on the planet has access to an LLM no different than the world's most powerful institutions. Starlink is connecting anyone on the globe with unconstrained access. We are building massive AI training data sets in human nutrition, soils, and plant genetics. Fixed trade routes and hubs are falling by the wayside. Pathways to nutrition are extending longevity and taking market share from healthcare. Tyrants are losing their ability to leverage famine or asymmetric knowledge to hold power. Power brokers can’t lobby their way around a force they do not comprehend.
What I learned this week is if entrepreneurs Harness the Forces of Creative Destruction, the world has the option to lose its imperfections and harness the means of production through the Pursuit of Happiness.
Farm Tank
Customer signals drive innovation. Entrepreneurs are those humans who have the unique ability to detect unmet customer needs. In conjunction with Kevin VanTrump, we have built a network of early adopter farmers, improving farmer profitability, adopting new technology, and delivering nutritional density at scale. We want to build this network to 100+ farmers open to new business models, agronomy, tech, genetics, and supply chain innovations. I am open to exposing our farmer group to the best of the new businesses we see early in our pipeline. Maybe even create a private YouTube channel or something you can look at. It would be even better if you could provide a test plot for some emerging technology. If you are that kind of farmer, please DM me so we can add you to our private WhatsApp group.
Technology Forecasting
People want to figure out “What’s the next breakthrough?” when often the next breakthrough is doing something normal a bit better. For example, Uber makes it easier to get a ride. It did not introduce hovercraft. OpenAI makes it easier to form knowledge; it is not inventing nuclear fusion.
But if you are wondering how to think a bit differently about what is next a few good places to look include:
What are the nerds doing in their free time on the weekends?
What are power users like athletes doing?
What do experts believe cannot be done?
What are they saying in science fiction? That scientists reject
In the realm of science fiction, a good benchmark is to reflect on the original Star Trek series and its derivatives. At age 4 or 5, everything on Star Trek 1.0 seemed possible to me. What looked long off then to my parents is now commonplace:
Technologies That Exist:
Automatic Doors: Ubiquitous in modern infrastructure.
Communicators: Analogous to mobile phones.
Universal Translator: Real-time translation devices and software.
Tricorders (partially): Various specialized devices for data analysis and environment sensing.
Wireless Earpieces: Commonplace in communication and audio devices.
Tablet Computers: Similar to PADDs used in "Star Trek."
3D Printing: Early stages of replicator technology, primarily for solid objects.
Advanced Medical Devices: Progress in diagnostic tools and treatments, though not as advanced as in "Star Trek."
Technologies Yet to Be Created:
Food Replicators: Able to create complex food items from basic compounds or energy.
Holodecks: Fully immersive and interactive virtual environments.
Warp Drive: Enabling faster-than-light space travel.
Phasers: Compact directed-energy weapons with both lethal and non-lethal capabilities.
Teleportation: Instantaneous transportation of matter over distances.
Medical Tricorders (fully): Instant, comprehensive medical diagnostics in a handheld device.
Bioneural Gel Packs and Advanced Medical Treatments: Highly advanced medical care for rapid healing and regeneration.
Nutrient Density Tech Stack
The “Tech Stack” to nutrient density and Food is Health includes:
Holobiome - Mastering the microbiome
Brightseed - Engineering micronutrition
Holganix - Soil Microbiome
Kula Bio - Nitrogen Fixation
Benson Hill - Genetics
White River Soy - Mini Mill
Edacious - Nutrient density optimization
Bushel - Financial Services and payments
The tech stack will expand to include additional platforms for financial services, human health, and in-silica models for soil, human nutrition, and animal nutrition.
On X…
While our institutions wander aimlessly, now is the “Time to Build” if we can forgo our rent-seeking ways (The thread)
The US is better than anywhere else at creating total factor productivity, a product of free minds and the core principle of the Pursuit of Happiness. But we push talent away for reasons we likely do not understand.
The President of El Salvador is actively recruiting talent to a country with great aspirations but no competitive advantage. Will this talent extend innovation in the US, in the same time zone, and interconnected with the fastest satellites?
On Substack….
A student skips 12 weeks of lectures but passes the final exam with a 94%. Three days before the final, he downloads the lecture notes into chat GPT and prompts it to teach him the course. What is the role of college in a world of tailored education? And how much human potential is slowed by conventional teaching?
Weeks Charts
Are they absent because they found a better way to learn?
"A student skips 12 weeks of lectures but passes the final exam with a 94%. Three days before the final, he downloads the lecture notes into chat GPT and prompts it to teach him the course. What is the role of college in a world of tailored education? And how much human potential is slowed by conventional teaching?"
I could not have said it better myself *chef's kiss*